Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling

Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling

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This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models--large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to welfare to taxes. Volume 1 is designed to guide future investment in modeling and analysis capability on the part of government agencies that produce policy estimates. It will inform congressional and executive decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of models and estimates and will interest social scientists in the potential of microsimulation techniques for basic and applied research as well as policy uses. The book concludes that a qsecond revolutionq is needed to improve the quality of microsimulation and other policy analysis models and the estimates they produce, with a special emphasis on systematic validation of models and communication of validation results to decision makers.Yet, despite extensive use over the past two decades, most policy analysis tools have rarely been the focus of any explicit evaluation of their utility or effectiveness . Recently ... One source fueling the demand is the recognition that changes in the U.S. population, economy, and society are ... attempts to find more revenue or produce more cost savings by fine-tuning tax provisions and program regulations .


Title:Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling
Author: Panel to Evaluate Microsimulation Models for Social Welfare Programs, Committee on National Statistics, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council
Publisher:National Academies Press - 1991-01-15
ISBN-13:

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